Looking ahead to August, the steel market remains in the traditional off-season for demand, with overall trading expected to hover in a weak range-bound pattern, characterized by a divergence between stronger plate prices and weaker long-product prices. On the demand side, persistently high temperatures and heavy rainfall in early August continue to constrain outdoor civil construction, while the sluggish start of new real estate projects weighs on sentiment, keeping trading volumes for construction long steel weak. The transmission from infrastructure funding to actual physical work remains delayed, yet resilient orders from manufacturing sectors—such as machinery, shipbuilding, and new energy equipment—provide structural support for flat steel, reinforcing the divergence between long and flat products. As temperatures gradually moderate in late August, the drag from seasonal headwinds is expected to ease marginally, raising the prospect of a recovery in end-user procurement.

On the supply side, widespread industry losses are forcing steel mills to bring forward maintenance on blast furnaces and rolling lines, leading to a marginal contraction in steel output and temporarily easing supply pressure. This provides a floor for steel prices, though it is insufficient to reverse the overarching weak-demand dynamic that defines the off-season.

On the cost front, iron ore inventories at ports remain high, and steel mill production cuts are dampening demand for raw materials, keeping ore prices under pressure. Coking coal prices are fluctuating, while coke prices face multiple rounds of downward revision expectations. Overall, smelting costs are resilient but trending lower, with progressively weakening support from the raw materials side.